CITY OF NEW BERN CHALLENGES CENSUS DATA…& WINS

After a successful challenge of the U.S. Census Bureau, population estimates are now more accurate for the city limits of New Bern. The City petitioned census estimates for a three-year period from 2021-2023 through the bureau’s Population Estimates Challenge Program. Recently, staff received a letter stating the City’s challenge was successful and that population numbers would be adjusted to reflect recent increases.

Each year in May, the Census releases its annual population estimate as of July 1^st of the previous year. (For example, in May 2025, the Census will release its population numbers as of July 1^st, 2024.) Municipalities and counties have a 90-day window to petition these estimates.  After researching new housing construction and other developments over the three-year period, staff submitted extensive documentation to the U.S. Census Bureau to prove the bureau’s numbers were incorrect. The documents required under the Population Estimates Challenge Program included several appendices and spreadsheets showing approved building permits, new housing (including new mobile home placement and single-family/multi-family units), demolition permits, annexations and utility connections. Staff also had to verify tax data for certain housing types. A letter from the mayor was also required to request the challenge.

“Our concerns really started in 2020,” said Mayor Jeffrey Odham. “New Bern was still recovering from hurricane Florence. Many of our residents had addresses here but they didn’t live here while their homes were being repaired, so they weren’t counted in the decennial census. Then COVID hit and census takers stopped in-person visits. We were anxious to see how this combination of factors affected New Bern’s growth in the ensuing years.” Noting a slow growth trend for 2021 and 2023 and a negative population estimate for 2022, the U.S. Census Bureau allowed the city to petition all three years at one time.

The new population estimates for the city limits of New Bern are as follows:

• 2021: 31,786 (+268 over census estimate)
• 2022: 32,508 (instead of losing 2, we gained 992 over the census estimate)
• 2023: 33,758 (+1,532)

It took staff approximately 9 months to collect and submit the appropriate documentation. “All of this hard work – months and months of data collection and analysis – is thanks to our GIS staff,” said Mayor Jeffrey Odham. “Not many municipalities or counties are successful in challenging the census. Our GIS staff put their minds to it and with the help of our inspections and utilities departments as well as the state demographer, they were able to prove that New Bern is growing faster than previously thought.”

In an email from the State Demographer Dr. Michael Cline, the U.S. Census Bureau accepted the challenge after finding errors in their building permit survey relative to actual building activity. He added that state certified population estimates will remain the same.

Census data is used to allocate billions of dollars in annual federal funding to states and communities. When a municipality is undercounted, it receives less of its fair share of these funds. This undercount can affect various programs such as Medicaid and other social services, as well as funding for schools, hospitals, roads, and public works. Additionally, population estimates have a significant impact on economic growth. Companies look at population growth when deciding to locate or start a business, and organizations and institutions look at census data to determine where to locate health clinics, transportation, and other community resources.

The City of New Bern has successfully challenged census estimates twice before, in 2004 and 2005.

For more information on the U.S. Census Bureau and its Population Estimates Challenge Program, visit census.gov.